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"A couple of weeks later, the company called me," Geraghty recalls. "They said, 'Would you mind consulting for us? We still need you in the projects that you were involved in.'"

His ex-employer, an office products manufacturing operation in Mississauga, was missing Geraghty's marketing expertise and his contacts - in short, his knowledge.

You can't see it, taste it or feel it. You can't package or wrap it. Yet, knowledge is the key commodity of our modern era. And it can easily evaporate into the ether when employees leave.

Unless executives and managers come up with a way to stem the flow of disappearing knowledge, says Dr. David DeLong, author of Lost Knowledge, Confronting The Threat of an Aging Workforce (Oxford Press), their organizations are at risk - and in one way or another, the rest of us could be, as well.

"Unfortunately, many employers don't have a clue that it's happening," DeLong says. "Or they know they have knowledge shortages, but they don't know what to do about it."

A knowledge shortage is not the same as a labour shortage or a skills shortage, he maintains.

Labour shortages occur when there aren't enough low-skilled workers to meet the demand and every other retail store or restaurant has a "help wanted" sign in the window. Skill shortages are the bane of electronics firms that can't find people to design new chips or hospitals that can't recruit enough doctors or intensive care nurses.

Knowledge shortages are more critical, says DeLong, a consultant and research fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's AgeLab. They occur "when you lose an engineer who has knowledge of your company, the context, the products and markets, and you can't replace that engineer with someone with the same depth of knowledge."

Should this engineer make widgets or toothpaste tubes, the risk of lost knowledge is likely manageable, although certainly annoying. Machines may not function smoothly, operations may be disrupted, quality control may suffer. If the engineer in question works for a major utilities firm, however, or in the nuclear or aerospace industries, tragic accidents can occur, he says, and the consequences could be catastrophic.

Knowledge disappears from companies when people like Jim Geraghty are downsized, or when key people decide to change jobs. It also vanishes when people retire.

And according to Statistics Canada, about a third of public sector employees, nearly 28 per cent of utilities employees, more than 39 per cent of educational services workers and about 26 per cent of workers in mining, forestry, fishing and oil and gas are nearing retirement age now.

In sectors like these with mature workforces, "the threat is increasing," DeLong says. "Turnover happens everyday, but in the next five to ten years the problem will grow. We're going to lose so many people so quickly it's inevitable that a critical mass of knowledge is going to leave."

Peppered throughout DeLong's book are examples of organizations that didn't respect knowledge as an essential commodity and lived to regret it. Perhaps the most graphic of these is his reference to NASA's (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Lunar Program, which lost critical knowledge during the downsizing craze of the 1990s when Saturn 5 engineers were encouraged to take early retirement.

"If we want to go to the moon again, we'll be starting from scratch," one NASA manager confided to him. "All of that knowledge has disappeared. It would take at least as long and cost at least as much to go back."

A few progressive organizations have begun to assess critical knowledge and create strategies to retain it, or transfer it to others before people leave their employ. It's a rather complex process, in part because knowledge is an abstract commodity and knowledge shortages are "very patchwork in their qualities," DeLong explains.

"You can't say it's society wide, or even industry wide," he says. "It will happen within a particular department or particular function. Within a company you may have one plant that has a major problem of exponential knowledge loss and another plant that has already been through this or may have avoided it because they have a younger workforce."

The remedies DeLong suggests overlap various human resources practices: recruiting, retention, employee development and training. Phased-in retirement and mentoring programs are essential, he says.

"You can't address this with one program," he cautions. "It demands a holistic solution. You can't say, let's introduce a mentoring program and that will solve our problems. Or let's improve our training or get better at recruiting. It requires a broad-based strategy and a commitment from leadership to implement it."

Until knowledge retention strategies become commonplace, certain people will benefit, thanks to one fascinating aspect of knowledge: It can be lost to organizations and companies, but not to the person who possesses it.

Employers scrambling to rehire lost knowledge will continue to help build the consulting practices and businesses of people like Jim Geraghty, who now owns and manages TellSell Marketing Services Inc., based in Oakville.

The firm that downsized him was his first client, Geraghty says. "I ended up consulting for that company for three years. It was a lot more profitable and a lot less frustrating."

Suddenly, the decision that looked so clear a week ago is anything but.

Yesterday's third-quarter data on the economy left analysts scrambling to reassess their view of the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision, set for Tuesday.

A week ago, an increase to 2.75 per cent from the current 2.5 per cent looked like a sure thing, given the bank's long-stated intent to "remove stimulus." But comments from Governor David Dodge and fresh signs of economic distress might persuade the bank to leave its overnight rate unchanged.

For months now, the bank has been beating its rate-increase drums. The economy is close to full potential; it looks set to keep running at full potential over the next year or so; inflation is not a pressing worry, but a full-tilt economy could make it so; the time has arrived to nudge rates higher to prevent the kind of overheating that leads to higher inflation.

Then came the latest jump in the value of the dollar on foreign exchange markets, or -- more accurately -- the latest dive in the U.S. dollar's value. The loonie soared, as did high-flying birds of other feathers as well, such as the euro, pound, yen and (as they are sometimes called) the Antipodean dollars of Australia and New Zealand.

Then, too, came the chilling of Canada's exports, whose growth stalled during the summer. That added weight to the views of those who argued that exporters had not gotten off as easily as earlier thought. It was just taking longer than usual for the pricier Canadian dollar to hurt their foreign sales.

Finally came yesterday's estimate from Statistics Canada of third-quarter growth in gross domestic product. It was weaker than expected for the summer months -- not 3.5-per-cent growth at an annual rate, but 3.2 per cent. Not much, but the new data included downward revisions to growth in both the second quarter (to 3.9 per cent from 4.3 per cent) and the first (to 2.7 per cent from 3 per cent).

Three-tenths here, three-tenths there, and pretty soon, you're talking about an economy that's not at full capacity, but a few tenths of a percentage point below.

A week ago, the market pounced on Mr. Dodge's comment in Berlin that the latest flight of the dollar -- to over 84 cents (U.S.) from 76.5 cents in the third quarter -- was "not inappropriate," given market conditions that included strong domestic demand and higher export prices.

Market conditions also included a U.S. dollar that was falling against all major currencies, especially since mid-October. Since then, the loonie, euro, pound, yen and Antipodeans have all risen about 6 per cent against the "strong dollar" so beloved of U.S. policy makers. Still, traders and economists read Mr. Dodge's reference as a signal that a rising Canadian dollar was just fine with him. Another rate increase next week still seemed to be in the cards.

Whether he misspoke (as some analysts argued) or whether the market misinterpreted his observation is moot. Clearly, there was a failure to communicate that Mr. Dodge moved to correct at a fortuitously timed appearance Wednesday before a Senate committee.

The dollar's rise would have a "dampening effect on aggregate demand for Canadian goods and services," he said, no matter how "not inappropriate" the higher dollar might be.

As those words sunk in, there was an "aha" moment as analysts figured out that the Berlin comment might have been a simple observation of reality, while the Senate assertion might have been the real hint that the bank was indeed concerned enough about the dollar's strength to consider taking a break from raising rates next week.

That view gained more adherents yesterday from the GDP data. The economy was not at full capacity in the second quarter; there was a bit left over. Worse, there was what Statscan called a "massive buildup" in inventories because companies produced more goods than they could sell. As Stéfane Marion of National Bank Financial said: "We can only assume that production will need to be adjusted down in the coming months in order to run down inventories."

In other words, there's slower growth ahead. Add to that the impact of the dollar, which "is definitely showing its teeth," as Dale Orr and Wojciech Szadurski of Global Insight observed. Trade was a huge drag on the economy and the inventory buildup was partly a "response to weaker demand for exports." The dollar news is not all bad, they added. Companies are spending much more on imported (and now cheaper) machinery and equipment, which points to stronger productivity growth ahead.

Still, the big picture has darkened, and more forecasters will be inclined to get in line with the central bank, which was one of the first to suggest that growth in 2005 will come in at less than 3 per cent.

The question now is what the bank will do next week to prevent that outlook from taking a further turn for the worse. The soundest bet now is that rates will stay put, but it's not a slam dunk yet.

SUSAN PINKER
Wednesday, October 26, 2005

Once upon a time there was always someone at home to plug the gaps. Her unpaid job included schlepping kids to appointments and filling the fridge.

Today, 2,325,400 mothers of kids age 16 and younger work for pay, says Statistics Canada, but most still do their old jobs, too. It's the kind of double-duty that Neil French, the recently disgraced creative director of WPP Group PLC, one of the world's largest marketing companies, says is an impossible task.

"You can't be a great creative director and have a baby and keep spending time off every time your kids are ill. You can't do the job," he said at an advertising event. Oh, but you can do the job, both jobs.

In one small way, however, Neil French was right: Doing them both perfectly is a fairy tale.

Striving for perfection may be the ticket at work, but perfectionism and parenting adolescents don't mix. To be sure, the psychological pressure of a teenager with problems sounds a constant buzz.

But unless you feel you must personally do it all, the logistics may not be as overwhelming as they feel. If your daughter is 15, why assume that you must leave work to take her wherever she needs to go? Provided the therapist hasn't asked you to attend, show your daughter how to get to her therapy appointments on her own. A less-is-more approach may not erase the worry, but it will ease the time bind.

After all, you researched and set up this support for her and are paying for it, which is heroic enough. In most cases you don't need to shepherd her, too. Give her a cryptic reminder, such as, "Today it's Tuesday with Morrie. Do you remember how to get there?"

Then feel free to go to work and stay there. Clue your manager in to the situation in broad strokes, so you'll have support if you must leave.

While you're monitoring her progress from a distance, congratulate yourself for nurturing your adolescent and contributing to her overall health.

You recognized her need for assistance and helped her solve the problem about how to get it, which puts her among the 53 per cent of Canadian youth who report high levels of parental nurturing and monitoring, according to a report released last week by the Canadian Institute of Health Information (CIHI), which surveyed the well-being of 5,580 Canadian teenagers.

"The message is that youth who say they have strong ties with parents, school and their community have better health," says Elizabeth Gyorfi-Dyke, director of the Canadian Population Health Initiative of CIHI.

In your case that means listening to your adolescent's concerns, being engaged enough to monitor her comings and goings, making sure she's connected with outside activities and helping her problem-solve. For any working parent, that's plenty. Doing any more may be a fairy tale.

Dear Susan:

I was recently diagnosed with prostate cancer, and I am weighing whether to try to change my work responsibilities after treatment. There are parts of my job I don't enjoy any more. But I am a private person and don't want to talk about personal matters at work. Please advise.

--Strong and Silent

Dear Strong:

A generation ago, doctors kept cancer diagnoses from patients, ostensibly for their own good. Today, it's some patients who find its mention taboo. It is often no longer a death sentence, yet many want to keep it secret. The idea that one brings this bad luck upon oneself is nonsense. Still, what you say to whom is your business.

Privacy aside, this is a great time to take stock. At work, are you doing what you want to do? People who make radical changes in their lives after a cancer diagnosis tend to live longer, says Lea Baider, a psycho-oncologist at the Sharrett Institute of Oncology at the Hadassah University Hospital in Jerusalem who is one of the leading authorities on the psychological impact of cancer.

People who use their illness as a catalyst for change -- and not just in their careers -- respond to treatment better and have more promising outcomes, she wrote in an e-mail. The question is not what will make you live longer but assessing how this event might improve your life while it's shaking it up.

Author Jonathan Franzen wrote about the mysterious effects of traumatic events in a recent New Yorker article, documenting how his impending divorce and his mother's cancer mysteriously turned him into an avid bird-watcher.

Only then did he consider Phoebe Snetsinger, the mother of a childhood classmate who became "the most successful birder in the world" after she was given a diagnosis of malignant melanoma.

"Snetzinger decided to devote the remaining months of her life to really serious birding, and in the next two decades through repeated remissions and recurrences she saw more species than any other human being before or since," Mr. Franzen wrote.

What impressed me was that it took a stroke of bad luck to make Franzen and Snetzinger do what they always wanted to. It would be a shame if you missed the opportunity.